“TWO BLACK SWANS”

“A BLACK SWAN” is an unthinkable event that massively affects our life, our career, our company, our country.

There are positive and negative swans, says Nassim Taleb in his book “Black Swan”.

But there are certain Black Swans which seem positive and turn out to be completely negative in the long run and vice versa. Black Swans often destroy our best laid plans.

Last week witnessed two black swans in a row. Demonetisation of Indian Currency and Election of new President in USA will massively impact our lives, our careers, our nations & our world.

Difference between Hillary & Trump is the difference between risk & uncertainty.

Risk means that probabilities are known. With Hillary, we knew her political weaknesses and hence, we could fathom the risk involved.

Uncertainty means that the probabilities are unknown. With Trump, we have entered a world which might turn out to be something not imagined ever.

Indian lifestyle before and after November 9, 2016 will be similarly distinct.

Could the Government have experimented by reducing tax rates for a year before cracking the demonetisation whip? When a democratic leader thunders “I will not leave any dishonest person”, it evokes fear because it comes from a person who has been a part of this dishonest system. Every political leader who has won an Indian Election has been a part of a complete corrupt process.

Corruption is personal as well as institutional. The chest thumping, moist eyed Indian will love the melodramatic speeches thinking that they are contributing to Swachch Bharat Abhiyan. An autocratic approach disguised as ‘Sudden Patriotism’ should be analysed. A vocal nation like India should surely reflect before voicing out exaggerated positive or negative responses.

The timing of the Indian Black Swan corresponds to the ‘Peak End Rule’, conceptualised by Daniel Kahneman. We tend to judge an event by how it was at its peak and at the end. We only remember our feelings at the peak and at the end of a particular event, like a film or a five year period.

We are witnessing the peak of Mr. Modi’s term and we will see an amazing end in 2019 after the dip of 2017 – 18.

The move has numerous advantages but a better execution and several supporting moves were surely needed. A nation is not our toy train which we can run on our fancies.

There are protests in United States and lot of support for the move in India. Let us hope that both Black Swans turn out to be positive as we move forward.

 

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I am an Author, Entrepreneur, Motivational Speaker, Parenting expert based in Mumbai. Having written Bestsellers like Don’t Raise Your Children, Raise Yourself (Amazon Bestseller), Why Women Are What They Are, Come On! Get Set Go

I am running Life Lemonade which offers unique Training Programs on Life Transformation, High Performance Leadership, Women Issues and Parenting.

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Action or Reflection: Your immediate choice

An Israeli researcher Michael Bar – Eli studied hundreds of penalty shoot-outs in soccer. In a penalty shootout, the ball takes less than 0.3 seconds to travel from the shooter to the goal. This is certainly not enough time for the goalkeepers to assess the ball’s trajectory. As a result, they need to decide beforehand what to do.

Study of various penalty shootouts shows that players who take penalty kicks shoot one third of the time at the middle of the goal, one third of the time at the left and one third of the time at the right. But the goalkeepers always either dive to the left or the right. Why?

Because it looks more impressive and less embarrassing to dive to the wrong side than to freeze on the spot and watch the ball sail past. This is called action bias – look active, even if it achieves nothing.

“Don’t sit, wait and watch – do something” is our life mantra.

We are descendants of hunters – who needed lightning fast reactions for survival. But our world is different. Still, we end up taking action without reflection.

Why is it torturous to wait & watch? Why is it bothersome to be seen idle? Why is it socially important to appear busy or engaged?

Think about situations where your immediate intervention might have worsened it when your sure intention was to be of some help.

When your kids fight and you manifest yourself as a saviour, you might add fuel to the fire by your presence.

Support – too much, too soon, might turn into a handicap. I have seen many retired people who keep themselves extremely occupied because they don’t want to feel ‘out of work, out of use’.

Replying immediately to tweets and online posts also shows our penchant towards taking immediate action, albeit through words.

In his book, The Art of Thinking Clearly, Rolf Dobelli says that society at large still prefers rash action to a sensible wait & watch strategy.

This surely doesn’t mean that a quick action is always unwarranted. A quick action for the sake of appearing active and involved is. Not taking a quick action is not same as inaction. In critical situations like a military/medical emergency, we need to act fast but in verbal arguments/brawls, a reflected and delayed action reaps better results.

Think:

Are you a mother who gets involved in every part of your child’s life because you are ‘at home’ to raise him/her?(Check your parenting style here Don’t Raise Your Children, Raise Yourself (Amazon Bestseller))

Are you a leader who is always behind schedule due to numerous meetings/appointments/review meetings?