“TWO BLACK SWANS”

Two Balck Swans.jpg“A BLACK SWAN” is an unthinkable event that massively affects our life, our career, our company, our country.

There are positive and negative swans, says Nassim Taleb in his book “Black Swan”.

But there are certain Black Swans which seem positive and turn out to be completely negative in the long run and vice versa. Black Swans often destroy our best laid plans.

Last week witnessed two black swans in a row. Demonetisation of Indian Currency and Election of new President in USA will massively impact our lives, our careers, our nations & our world.

Difference between Hillary & Trump is the difference between risk & uncertainty.

Risk means that probabilities are known. With Hillary, we knew her political weaknesses and hence, we could fathom the risk involved.

Uncertainty means that the probabilities are unknown. With Trump, we have entered a world which might turn out to be something not imagined ever.

Indian lifestyle before and after November 9, 2016 will be similarly distinct.

Could the Government have experimented by reducing tax rates for a year before cracking the demonetisation whip? When a democratic leader thunders “I will not leave any dishonest person”, it evokes fear because it comes from a person who has been a part of this dishonest system. Every political leader who has won an Indian Election has been a part of a complete corrupt process.

Corruption is personal as well as institutional. The chest thumping, moist eyed Indian will love the melodramatic speeches thinking that they are contributing to Swachch Bharat Abhiyan. An autocratic approach disguised as ‘Sudden Patriotism’ should be analysed. A vocal nation like India should surely reflect before voicing out exaggerated positive or negative responses.

The timing of the Indian Black Swan corresponds to the ‘Peak End Rule’, conceptualised by Daniel Kahneman. We tend to judge an event by how it was at its peak and at the end. We only remember our feelings at the peak and at the end of a particular event, like a film or a five year period.

We are witnessing the peak of Mr. Modi’s term and we will see an amazing end in 2019 after the dip of 2017 – 18.

The move has numerous advantages but a better execution and several supporting moves were surely needed. A nation is not our toy train which we can run on our fancies.

There are protests in United States and lot of support for the move in India. Let us hope that both Black Swans turn out to be positive as we move forward.

 

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I am an Author, Entrepreneur, Motivational Speaker, Parenting expert based in Mumbai. Having written Bestsellers like Don’t Raise Your Children, Raise Yourself (Amazon Bestseller), Why Women Are What They Are, Come On! Get Set Go

I am running Life Lemonade which offers unique Training Programs on Life Transformation, High Performance Leadership, Women Issues and Parenting.

Connect with me on Linkedin, Twitter @drswatilodha Facebook

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